Ethnic Diversity and the Likelihood of Military Coups: The Malian Experience

Abstract

Despite democratic transitions and the dominance of regional anti-coup norms, Mali has experienced disconcerting return of the military coups, raising doubts about the social and political conditions within the country that allow the unconstitutional seizure of power.   The principal issue against this work is that the ethnic diversity in Mali has often been treated as if it was a mere contextual variable and few efforts have been made to understand the interaction between ethnic marginalisation, insecurity and weak civil-military relations that works in favour of increasing coup propensity.  The empirical inquiry attempted to assess the correlation between ethnic heterogeneity and the probability of military coups in the West African states, especially the Malian case. In particular, the study focused on how differences in ethnic diversity affect the incidence of coups, the impact of ethnic marginalisation and unequal distribution of state resources on coup predisposition, and the interaction between ethnic diversity, insecurity and civil-military relations as explanatory factors of coup recurrence in Mali.  The investigation was based on Relative Deprivation Theory. According to this theory, instability follows when groups feel a gap between their expectations of the state and their actual benefits, security and recognition received.  The research methodology that was used in the study was qualitative research.  Secondary data was taken from a diversity of sources, such as textbooks, peer-reviewed journal article sources, newspapers, official government publications, and international news outlets. A content analysis method was adopted as the data processing technique.  The study argues that ethnic diversity itself does not lead to coups in Mali; instead, coups are more likely to occur in situations where ethnic exclusion, unfair distribution of resources, long-standing insecurity and a weakening of civilian legitimacy combine with fragile civil-military relations all but necessary to weaken civilian legitimacy and make military intervention seem acceptable.  As this study shows, the recurrent tendency for coups in Mali is therefore rooted in a dynamic interaction between perceived ethnic deprivation, insecurity and militarised political agency.   Policy recommendations flowing from this work include the need for inclusive governance, fair distribution of resources, security reforms around the people and strong civilian oversight of the military.