A Retrospective Analysis of Security Dilemma and Nuclear Proliferation: A Recipe for War or Peace?
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17605/cajssh.v5i6.1127Keywords:
Retrospective analysis, Security dilemma, Nuclear proliferation, War, PeaceAbstract
Nuclear weapons proliferation remains a critical issue in international relations, simultaneously acting as a deterrent to war and a source of escalating tensions. The pursuit of nuclear capabilities by states seeking security often triggers regional and global instability through the security dilemma, where one state's defense measures heighten the perceived threat to others. This study examined the dual role of nuclear proliferation in both promoting peace via deterrence and exacerbating tensions, using the Security Dilemma and Deterrence Theories as a framework. A qualitative analysis of secondary sources, including academic literature and international documents, revealed that while nuclear proliferation can enhance strategic stability, it also increases the risk of conflict due to mistrust and arms races. The findings highlight the need for diplomatic engagement and international cooperation to mitigate these risks. The study recommends strengthening non-proliferation treaties and fostering regional confidence-building measures to promote global security and progress toward nuclear disarmament.
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[4] J. Cirincione, Bomb Scare: The History and Future of Nuclear Weapons. Columbia University Press, 2008.
[5] A. Cohen, The Worst-Kept Secret: Israel's Bargain with the Bomb. Columbia University Press, 2010.
[6] N. N. Eyina and S. M. Anyalebech, "Deterrence, Security Dilemma and the Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons in the International System: A Study of North Korea and Pakistan," European Journal of Humanities and Educational Advancements (EJHEA), vol. 5, no. 5, pp. 97-108, 2024.
[7] N. N. Eyina, S. C. Chinwendu, and O. N. Dorathy, "North Korea and the Quest for Nuclear Deterrence: Its Implication for South Asian Security," European Journal of Humanities and Educational Advancements (EJHEA), vol. 2, no. 8, pp. 67-86, 2021. [Online]. Available: https://scholarzest.com/index.php/ejhea/article/view/1165
[8] M. Fitzpatrick, The Iranian Nuclear Crisis: Avoiding Worst-Case Outcomes. Routledge, 2008.
[9] S. Ganguly and S. P. Kapur, Nuclear Proliferation in South Asia: Crisis Behaviour and the Bomb. Routledge, 2008.
[10] S. Ganguly and S. P. Kapur, India, Pakistan, and the Bomb: Debating Nuclear Stability in South Asia. Columbia University Press, 2010.
[11] F. J. Gavin, Nuclear Statecraft: History and Strategy in America's Atomic Age. Cornell University Press, 2009.
[12] L. D. Gilbert, International Relations: A Handbook for Beginners. Alheribooks, 2011.
[13] C. L. Glaser, Rational Theory of International Politics: The Logic of Competition and Cooperation. Princeton University Press, 2010.
[14] S. S. Hecker, "North Korea's Choice: Bombs Over Electricity," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, vol. 66, no. 4, pp. 42-54, 2010.
[15] J. H. Herz, "Idealist Internationalism and the Security Dilemma," World Politics, vol. 2, no. 2, pp. 157-180, 1950.
[16] B. Heuser, The Bomb: Nuclear Weapons in Their Historical, Strategic, and Ethical Context. Oxford University Press, 2010.
[17] D. Holloway, Stalin and the Bomb: The Soviet Union and Atomic Energy, 1939-1956. Yale University Press, 1994.
[18] J. E. C. Hymans, Achieving Nuclear Ambitions: Scientists, Politicians, and Proliferation. Cambridge University Press, 2012.
[19] R. Jervis, "Cooperation Under the Security Dilemma," World Politics, vol. 30, no. 2, pp. 167-214, 1978.
[20] R. Jervis, The Meaning of the Nuclear Revolution: Statecraft and the Prospect of Armageddon. Cornell University Press, 1989.
[21] R. Jervis, Why Nuclear Superpowers Don’t Fight: Nuclear Weapons and Power Politics. Harvard University Press, 2009.
[22] D. C. Kang, Nuclear North Korea: A Debate on Engagement Strategies. Columbia University Press, 2015.
[23] D. D. Kaye, Talking to the Enemy: Track Two Diplomacy in the Middle East and South Asia. Rand Corporation, 2007.
[24] A. P. Liff and G. J. Ikenberry, "Racing Toward Tragedy? China's Rise, Military Competition in the Asia Pacific, and the Security Dilemma," International Security, vol. 39, no. 2, pp. 52-91, 2014.
[25] P. M. Morgan, Deterrence Now. Cambridge University Press, 2003.
[26] H. Müller, The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty: A History of Political Tension. Oxford University Press, 2010.
[27] H. Müller, The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty: A History of Political Tension. Oxford University Press, 2017.
[28] R. S. Norris and H. M. Kristensen, "Global Nuclear Stockpiles, 1945-2002," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, vol. 58, no. 6, pp. 103-113, 2002.
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[35] S. D. Sagan and K. N. Waltz, The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: An Enduring Debate. W. W. Norton & Company, 2013.
[36] D. A. Smith, "The Baruch Plan and the Origins of the International Atomic Energy Agency," The Journal of Cold War Studies, vol. 8, no. 1, pp. 3-19, 2006.
[37] N. Tannenwald, The Nuclear Taboo: The United States and the Non-Use of Nuclear Weapons Since 1945. Cambridge University Press, 2017.
[38] J. S. Walker, Prompt and Utter Destruction: Truman and the Use of Atomic Bombs Against Japan. The University of North Carolina Press, 2005.
[39] K. N. Waltz, The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: An Enduring Debate. W. W. Norton & Company, 2013.
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Published
2024-10-14
How to Cite
Nkatomba, E. ., & Jossey, B. U. (2024). A Retrospective Analysis of Security Dilemma and Nuclear Proliferation: A Recipe for War or Peace?. Central Asian Journal of Social Sciences and History, 5(6), 232–245. https://doi.org/10.17605/cajssh.v5i6.1127
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